Dark Horses: Raphinha, Lautaro Martínez & Ousmane Dembélé Charge Towards Ballon d’Or.

For years, the Ballon d’Or has been a closed shop — Messi, Ronaldo and a tight inner circle of superstars dominating the headlines and hardware. But as football shifts into a new era, the door is cracking open for fresh contenders. Among them are three supremely talented but often overlooked figures: Raphinha, Lautaro Martínez, and Ousmane Dembélé.

Could one of these dynamic attackers break through the elite glass ceiling and claim the game’s most prestigious individual award?

Let’s break down their chances.

Raphinha (left), Lautaro Martínez (center) and Ousamne Dembélé (right) are all still in the Champions League and the main contenders for the Ballon d'Or.

Raphinha — FC Barcelona’s Unsung Engine

Often in the shadows of bigger names at Barcelona, Raphinha’s influence has grown quietly but steadily. With an elite work rate, two-footed delivery and an increasing eye for goal, the Brazilian is becoming one of La Liga’s most complete wide players.

Why he could win it:

• If he leads Barca deep into the Champions League, the narrative shifts.

• His improved numbers this season (goals + assists per 90') show he’s more than just a flair player — he’s productive under pressure.

What holds him back:

• Lack of central spotlight. Even now, Pedri, Lewandowski and Lamine Yamal tend to grab more attention.

• Unless he becomes the star of club or country, he may be seen more as a valuable piece than the leading man.

Lautaro Martínez — Inter's Icon

Martínez has quietly become one of the best pure strikers in Europe. After captaining Inter Milan to a dominant Serie A campaign and leading the Capocannoniere race, he’s no longer just the scrappy poacher — he’s evolved into a complete No. 9.

Why he could win it:

• A deep Champions League run could propel him into serious contention.

• His leadership role and consistency sets him apart from other strikers in his age group.

What holds him back:

• Serie A doesn’t carry the same global spotlight as the Premier League or La Liga.

• He’ll need standout international performances to break into Ballon d’Or voting conversations.

Ousmane Dembélé — Wildcard With World-Class Ceiling

Few players in world football are as unpredictable, or electrifying, as Ousmane Dembélé. Now at PSG, he’s shown glimpses of absolute brilliance, especially in big Champions League nights.

Why he could win it:

• When healthy, he’s unplayable. His ability to break games open, especially in UCL knockout rounds, makes him a highlight-reel magnet.

What holds him back:

• Injuries. Always injuries. It’s the thread that runs through every discussion about Dembélé’s career.

• PSG’s narrative dominance is still centered around Mbappé — unless Dembélé becomes the man, he remains a supporting act.

Verdict: Long Shots With Real Firepower

Are any of these three the Ballon d’Or favorite? No — not yet. But that’s not the point.

The Ballon d’Or isn’t just about talent. It’s about timing, momentum, storylines and clutch performances on the biggest stages. Raphinha, Lautaro and Dembélé each have the talent to put together a season that forces the football world to take notice.

And if one of them does that — leading club and country, dazzling on Europe’s biggest nights — then don’t be surprised to see one of their names on that prestigious shortlist.

Who do you think has the best shot at making a Ballon d’Or run? Let us know in the comments.